Bitcoin ‘guardrail’ gets stronger at $60K as bulls brace for macro data

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BTC price moves become increasingly erratic in the hours leading up to a slew of U.S. macroeconomic data prints after Bitcoin bulls fail to flip $63,000.

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Bitcoin ‘guardrail’ gets stronger at $60K as bulls brace for macro data

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Bitcoin (BTC) threatened to give back early week gains on May 14 as volatility increased into macro data reports.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price “barts” up and down into PPI, Powell

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price weakness entering hourly timeframes, producing a dip to $61,440 on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD had managed as high as $63,450 the day prior — a level at which shorts faced clear danger.

“If Bitcoin can clear $63k, over leveraged shorts are going to get squeezed,” trading resource Material Indicators warned in part of a post on X at the time.

BTC/USDT order book data for Binance as of May 13. Source: Material Indicators

Bulls ultimately failed to find momentum, and at the time of writing, a hefty chunk of liquidity had been taken to the downside, according to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap (screenshot) as of May 14. Source: CoinGlass

Material Indicators noted that bids were strengthening at $60,000 and $65,000 in advance of economic reports from the United States.

These would take the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) print on the day, along with commentary from Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve.

“It’s not uncommon to see ‘guardrails’ placed in the order book ahead of FED speeches and economic reports,” part of another X post read.

“It’s also not uncommon to see them get pulled at the last minute.”

BTC/USDT order book data for Binance as of May 14. Source: Material Indicators

As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin has created a habit of neutralizing liquidity both above and below spot price while remaining in a narrow range since the end of April.

Analyst: Expect “more significant” reactions to macro data

Considering the potential impact of the PPI numbers, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro revealed an unusual setup this week.

Related: CPI meets $60K BTC price battle — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

PPI, he noted, would come before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout for April, presenting a rare scenario for traders that does not account for wildcard misses in the data itself.

“Today is a rare occasion where US PPI data is released the day prior to CPI data,” he told X followers.

“PPI + CPI data have a very strong correlation. PPI leading the way for CPI numbers historically. Thus expect the market to react more significantly than usual on any miss on expectations.”

U.S. PPI vs. CPI data. Source: Tedtalksmacro

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool underscored the need for serious surprises in order to shift market expectations of an interest rate cut from the Fed coming any sooner than September.

The odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, stood at just 3.5% at the time of writing, with 24.6% for the July meeting.

Fed target rate probabilities for July FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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